METHOD OF DETERMINING THE CHANGE OF STATE OF A COMPLEX HETEROGENEOUS SYSTEM UNDER OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26906/SUNZ.2024.1.091Keywords:
complex system, heterogeneity, system state, operational managementAbstract
Topicality. During operational management, it is necessary to predict possible changes in the state of a complex system. But with significant heterogeneity of the blocks of a complex system, standard methods of calculating states provide a forecast with unacceptable errors. The purpose of the article is to propose a method for determining the state change of a complex heterogeneous system with acceptable errors during operational control. Research results. A mathematical model of the change of states of a complex heterogeneous system has been developed. The technical state of the block at any moment in time in the model is characterized by an aggregated parameter, which is the probability of the block's failure-free operation. On the basis of the developed model, a method of constructing the function of transitional probabilities of the process of changing the values of the aggregated parameter is proposed. Conclusion. The developed method makes it possible to reduce the forecast error of a change in the state of a complex heterogeneous system when an aggregated parameter is introduced.Downloads
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