Influence of macrofinancial cycle on activity of Ukrainian agroholdings.

Abstract

UDC 336.6

Roman Kornyliuk, Ph.D., Doctoral Candidate «Kyiv National V. Hetman University». Anna Kornyliuk, Ph.D., Senior Researcher. Institute for Economics and Forecasting accountable to National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Influence of macrofinancial cycle on activity of Ukrainian agroholdings. The problems of Ukrainian agroholdings activity during system instability are considered. The agri-food sector products have the biggest share in the export structure. Thus, this industry has a significant impact on the economy development and provides a significant share of earnings nominated in foreign currency. Based on the empirical data analysis, the relationship between macro-financial shocks, systemic risks of the banking sector and the cyclicality of the agrarian sector's results is substantiated. The mechanisms and results of the influence of systemic shocks of currency, credit, market character on the dynamics of incomes and cash flows of public agroholdings are determined.

As a result of empirical studies, there was determined a significant relationship between macrofinancial situation and the financial position of public agricultural holdings in Ukraine. However, the impact of systemic risk on the activities of agricultural leading companies had specific differences compared with the rest of the economy. Thus, the external market shocks associated with downward trends in the world commodity market at 2013 were more significant for export-oriented agribusiness groups than domestic macroeconomic shocks during the 2014-2015 recession. Moreover, despite the negative impact of domestic demand and the availability of bank lending, the internal systemic crisis had a number of positive effects for the agri-sector.

Keywords: agroholdings, systemic risk, macro-financial shocks, financial stability, devaluation, FCF, CAPEX, EBITDA.