Macroeconomic analysis of the structure and dynamics of Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector

Esmira Mirmammad Ahmadova; Aysel Sajaddin  Aliyeva

doi:10.26906/EiR.2025.3(98).3902

Authors

Esmira Mirmammad Ahmadova Azerbaijan State University of Economics https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2419-2353
Aysel Sajaddin Aliyeva Postgraduate Student, Lecturer https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0720-4191

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26906/EiR.2025.3(98).3902

Keywords:

non-oil and gas sector, macroeconomic analysis, economic diversification, econometric modeling, GDP structure

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive macroeconomic and econometric analysis of the structural transformation and growth dynamics of Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector amid heightened global market volatility and the strategic push for economic diversification. Drawing on quarterly data from 2017 to 2025, the study explores changes in GDP composition, sectoral investment trends, and their macro-level interactions. The regression results confirm a robust positive effect of non-oil GDP growth on total GDP, while foreign investments exhibit a moderate yet negative short-term impact. The findings highlight the increasing significance of the non-oil sector as a key driver of sustainable, inclusive, and shock-resilient economic development in Azerbaijan. The paper emphasizes the importance of investment structure and institutional quality in shaping long-term economic outcomes. Policy implications suggest that strengthening domestic value chains and reducing import dependence are crucial for enhancing the sector’s contribution to national growth.

Author Biographies

Esmira Mirmammad Ahmadova, Azerbaijan State University of Economics

PhD in Economics, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Applied Economics

Aysel Sajaddin Aliyeva, Postgraduate Student, Lecturer

Odlar Yurdu University

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