Approach to quantitative assessment of the resilience of critical infrastructure facilities

Abstract

The resilience of critical infrastructure facilities is defined as the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing
conditions, as well as to withstand and recover quickly from failures, including deliberate attacks, accidents or natural threats.
Ensuring a high level of security and resilience of critical infrastructure facilities for Ukraine in the face of russian aggression is an
extremely urgent issue. The purpose of the research was to develop a methodological approach for quantifying the level of
resilience of critical infrastructure facilities, regardless of the critical infrastructure sectors to which they belong and all types of
project threats. The object of research is the safety and resilience of critical infrastructure facilities. The subject of research is
the methodology for quantifying the level of resilience of critical infrastructure facilities. Results obtained. The initial stage after
a dangerous event is a type of manifestation of the "fold" catastrophe defined in the theory of catastrophes. This approach allows
you to determine the losses in the volume of service provision by a critical infrastructure facility as a result of a dangerous event,
which determine the vulnerability of the object. The higher this indicator, the lower the stability of the critical infrastructure facility.
The use of the simulation model for cascading effects makes it possible to obtain probabilistic estimates of the development of
events according to certain scenarios and allows to assess threats to a critical infrastructure facility by the probability of occurrence
of events and transitions between them. Based on the obtained values of the probability of occurrence of dangerous events for all
elements of the critical infrastructure facility We identify the most vulnerable and quantify resilience for them. This makes it
possible to assess the necessary resources (financial, material, energy, human, transport, etc.) to increase resilience. Determine the
necessary redundancy elements to avoid cascading effects and unintended consequences. Conclusions. On the basis of the theory
of disasters, a single methodological approach has been developed for quantifying the level of resilience of critical infrastructure
facilities, regardless of the critical infrastructure sectors to which they belong.The proposed approach allows to conduct a stability
analysis for all elements of a critical infrastructure facility, to conduct a comparative analysis of vulnerability and resilience of
sector facilities, to assess the amount of additional investments needed to reduce vulnerability and increase the resilience of facility
elements, to develop sectoral programs to increase the resilience of sector facilities, to determine the necessary territorial resources
of reservation and their volumes.