PROGNOSTICATION HARVEST LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL CULTURES WITH THE USE UNCLEAR DESCRIPTION OF INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PLANTS STATE INDICATORS

Abstract

The subject of the study in the article is an estimation possibility of prognostication level of agricultural cultures harvest at unclear description influence factors and special plants state indicators. The object of the study is determination of harvest level in set moment of time if the known influence factors and the plants state indicators which turn out with the use of the controlled from distance facilities. The goal is consideration method and ground of decision-making, about the harvest level of agricultural cultures if unclear description of factors which influence on their, and plants state indicators. The tasks: analysis various monitoring methods of the agricultural cultures state and prognostication of their harvest; determination of influence factors on the harvest level and plants state indicators; consideration possibility of description of influence factors and indicators with the use of fuzzy sets theory; estimation possibility of the use the remote sensing information for the receipt numeral values of influence factors and plants state indicators; development of method prognostication of harvest level agricultural cultures with the use of unclear description influence factors of and plants state indicators; ground of decision-making about a harvest level of agricultural cultures at the set values of influence factors and plants state indicators. The following results were obtained. As a result of research unclear description of influence factors and plants state indicators was entered. It is showed that unclear description can be used for influences factors which are determined, both in number and high-quality. On the basis of such description the method of decision-making about a harvest level is developed taking into account the index NDVI and fractal dimension. The results of determination different degrees of harvest level of are resulted for four different sets of values of influence factors and plants state indicators. It is showed, as unclear values of factors and indicators in a different degree influence on the estimation of harvest level. Conclusions. The method of prognostication described in this work allows to analyses, as different sets of values of influence factors and plants state indicators change the forecast harvest level of agricultural cultures.