METHODS OF IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF FORECASTING OF EMERGENCY EMERGENCY SITUATIONS ON THE BASIS OF THE METHOD OF COUPLY ACCOUNTING OF ARGUMENTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26906/SUNZ.2022.1.111Keywords:
emergency situation, generalized parameter, systematic component, periodic component, random component, model, method of pairwise consideration of argumentsAbstract
The effectiveness of planning and implementation of measures to prevent emergencies of a natural nature is determined by the quality of forecasting the threats of their occurrence. Emergency prevention is based on the analysis and accuracy of forecasting the possibility of such emergencies. The article substantiates the choice of the model of change of the generalized parameter of the process of change of emergencies of natural character. The number of emergencies over a period of time is considered as a generalized parameter. Taking into account the action of all destabilizing factors, this process should be presented in the form of an additive mixture of systematic components, which characterizes the irreversible processes of drift parameters, periodic and random components. Assessment of all three components of the process of changing natural emergencies will allow not only to make predictions on each of them, but also to analyze more deeply the causes of emergencies. A method for improving the accuracy of forecasting emergencies of a natural nature based on the method of pairwise consideration of arguments. The method allows to increase the accuracy of forecasting emergencies of natural nature by assessing the systematic and periodic components, as well as forecasting the random component of the process of changing natural emergencies. Experimental studies have shown the effectiveness of the method of pairwise consideration of arguments to predict the random component of the process of emergencies of a natural nature on the basis of the developed methodology. At the same time, the accuracy of forecasting the number of emergencies compared to the statistically probable forecast method has increased almost 1.7 times. This allows reasonable approaches to the planning and implementation of organizational and technical measures aimed at preventing and eliminating the consequences of emergencies both in the state and its regions.Downloads
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