FORMALIZED MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF COMPATIBLE FORECASTING AND ENSURING READINESS FOR EMERGENCY SITUATION RESPONSE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26906/SUNZ.2021.2.112Keywords:
formalized mathematical model, control algorithm, emergency situation, losses from emergencies, level of readinessAbstract
Topicality. At present, emergency prevention should be seen as a complex, combined process of predicting emergencies and responding in advance to threats or mitigation. Goal. Development of a formalized mathematical model of joint emergency forecasting and ensuring emergency preparedness. Method. The formalized mathematical model of joint forecasting and ensuring the readiness to respond to emergencies is a system of analytical dependencies, which together allow to solve the problem of research. It implements the principle of a systematic approach to solving the problem of emergency prevention in order to prevent their occurrence or minimize the possible consequences. Emergency prevention is a complex systemic process related to the analysis of emergency threats, their forecasting and ensuring the readiness of civil defense units to respond. Results. A formalized mathematical model of joint forecasting and ensuring emergency response preparedness and a control algorithm that implements the developed mathematical model have been developed. The formalized mathematical model of joint forecasting and emergency preparedness is a combination of twointerrelated models: the emergency forecasting model and the possible damage caused by them, and the emergency preparedness model. Conclusions. Formalized mathematical model of joint forecasting and emergency preparedness includes mathematical models of emergency forecasting by nature, types, levels and possible consequences as a result of them both in the state as a whole and in its regions; mathematical models for assessing the potential technical capacity and readiness of units to perform tasks as assigned, optimal allocation of resources to ensure the readiness of units, optimization of territorial structures of civil defense, cost forecasting, technical and human support for emergencies. The obtained results of the research are the foundation for substantiation of organizational and technical measures for adequate response to emergencies of different nature in real conditions.Downloads
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