METHOD AND MODELS TO SELECT THE TRAJECTORY OF DEVELOPING ENTERPRISE MOVING TO THE IMMEDIATEREFORM GOAL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26906/SUNZ.2020.2.040Keywords:
trajectory of movement towards the immediate goal of a developing enterprise, selection of rational options for measures taken in relation to reform, qualitative and quantitative estimates of indicators and factors in optimization, lexicographical ordering of options, determination of the significance of indicators using the scatter values of indicator estimates, search for compromise solutionsAbstract
The subject of research in the publication is the process of modernization of a developing enterprise in terms of limited opportunities (costs, timing, risks). The aim of the work is to develop methods and models aimed at researching the achievement of the immediate goals of enterprise reform.The following tasks are solved in the article: the development goals of the enterprise are analyzed and a conclusion regarding the feasibility of achieving immediate goals that have minimal risk in the face of limited enterprise capabilitiesis made.A trajectory of movement to the immediategoal which consists of steps related to the limited capabilities of the enterpriseis formed.Each step taken is associated with the selection of one of the possible directions of movement towards the immediate goal and the assessment of costs, timelines and risks for the new step.An iterative step-by-step process ends if the immediate goal is achieved. The indicators and factors associated with the achievement of the immediate goal are proposed.Two problem statements for optimizing costs, timelines and risks are considered.The first statement of the problem is related to the qualitative presentation of the values of indicators and factors. The method of lexicographic ordering of "words", which consist oflinguisticvariables is proposed.By streamlining the "words", a choice of the option of reform measures with optimal values of indicatorsis made.For the second statement and solution of the optimization problem, the method based on quantitative estimates involving Boolean variables is used.Optimization of individual (local) indicators as well as compromise optimization in the conditions of inconsistency of indicatorsare carried out. The method for assessing the importance of indicators in case of conflicting representations of large initial uncertaintyby experts is proposed.The method uses the scatter of the estimates of indicators for various options for activities undertaken in relation to the reform of the enterprise. The following methods have been used in the work: system analysis to represent strategies and trajectories of movement toward the immediate goal of reform;sequential optimization methods based on an iterative process of moving toward a goal;a method for the qualitative assessment of options usinglinguisticvariables and lexicographic ordering of options;the method of integer optimization and integer choice of reform options;a method for assessing the importance of indicators, based on the magnitude of the dispersion of indicator values for the set of investigated options for activities related to the reform of production;multicriteria optimization method to find a compromise solution when choosing an enterprise reform option.The following results have been obtained: a reasonable trajectory of movement towards the immediate goal of enterprise reform in the form of iterative process of goal achievement;indicators and factors affecting the attainability of the immediate goal of enterprise reform in terms of limited opportunities are presented; the method of qualitative assessment and optimization of the main indicators of a developing enterprise is proposed;optimization models are presented for choosing the best option for the measures taken in relation to reform based on integer optimization using Boolean variables; the method to select the “weight” (significance) of indicators, based on the magnitude of the dispersion of estimates of indicators on the set of possible measures for reforming productionis proposed; the optimization model to select a compromise solution taking into account the obtained “weight” values of individual indicatorsis proposedDownloads
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