COMPLEX MODEL FOR PROLIFERATION OF DAMAGE INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL SITUATIONS IN THE STATE

Abstract

The article is devoted to solving the problem of forecasting possible damage to the state caused by emergency situations. In most cases, regression analysis, factor analysis, and statistical-probabilistic methods are used to predict damage, which are mainly focused on prediction of individual types of emergencies and the consequences of them. Possibilities of an integrated solution to the problem of comprehensive forecasting not only the possibility of occurrence of emergency situations in general, but also possible damage due to them on the basis of factual information on emergency situations for a certain period of monitoring is insufficiently studied. All this allows us to assert that it is expedient to create a combined method of forecasting the consequences of emergency situations, which determines the problem and relevance of the research. The utility and expediency of using this method is due to the fact that the combined method combines the method of regression analysis, the method of factor analysis and the probabilistic-statistical method of forecasting. This allows you to offset some of the drawbacks with others, which will increase the accuracy of prediction. The purpose of the article is the development of a combined method and a comprehensive model for forecasting damage due to emergency situations in the state. Research results. On the basis of the combined method, a comprehensive model of prediction of damage due to emergency situations has been developed, which allows the forecast of damage in general by the state and indicators of individual risk in the regions of the country based on factual information on emergencies during a certain period of monitoring. As a result of experimental studies, it has been established that the proposed model allows to solve the problems of forecasting damage due to emergency situations of different character, the total possible damage and indicators of individual risk in regions of the state with a mean relative error of forecast not more than ten percent. Conclusions and scope of research results. The proposed comprehensive model allows forecasting of possible damage and individual risks to be lost due to emergency situations both in the state as a whole and in its regions, in order to adequately respond to the forces of civilian security and to work out measures to prevent the emergence of emergency situations, the possible elimination of their consequences with the greatest efficiency and least cost.