Regional fragility in the context of sustainable development: factors, methods, and the case of Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26906/EiR.2025.3(98).3899Keywords:
fragility index, sustainable development, region, ranking, regional fragility, riskAbstract
This article explores the concept of regional fragility and the methods used to assess it. It identifies key factors contributing to regional fragility, including political instability, economic vulnerability, and security risks. Special attention is given to the Fragile States Index (FSI), which is calculated based on four core dimensions: cohesion, economic performance, political stability, and social well-being. The study emphasizes the potential for adapting individual components of the FSI to the regional level of analysis and presents an assessment of regional fragility across Ukraine. The research includes a visualization of the ranking results for the ten most vulnerable regions and provides a rationale for selecting these specific oblasts for in-depth analysis. Furthermore, the article outlines the indicators used to calculate an integrated fragility index tailored for regional evaluation within the framework of sustainable development. The article provides a detailed overview of the conceptual framework for understanding regional fragility in the context of sustainable development. It introduces a methodological approach for quantifying fragility using adapted indicators from the Fragile States Index. The methodology includes both quantitative and qualitative approaches, combining statistical analysis with structured indicator-based evaluation. Particular emphasis is placed on the use of composite indices and multi-criteria decision-making methods to ensure a comprehensive assessment of regional fragility. The article also reviews the role of international organizations such as the Fund for Peace, the OECD, and the World Bank in developing and applying fragility assessment frameworks. These global practices serve as a foundation for adapting tools to the Ukrainian context and enhancing the relevance of regional policy responses. The study also highlights the spatial disparities in regional vulnerability across Ukraine. By integrating global practices with localized data, the research offers a practical tool for policymakers and regional planners. A separate section is devoted to analyzing international practices in assessing regional fragility. The value of this study lies in its methodological contribution—adapting national-level fragility assessment tools to the regional context, thereby enhancing the analytical capacity for sustainable regional development planning.
References
Багінський А. В. Крихкі держави в умовах кризових ситуацій. Вісник Вісник НТУУ «КПІ». Політологія. Соціологія. Право. № 3(55) (2022). С. 29-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20535/2308-5053.2022.3(55).269534
Скиба О. Інституційна стійкість держави як фактор її сталого розвитку та економічної безпеки. Сталий розвиток економіки, 2024. № 3(50), С. 256-261. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2308-1988/2024-50-38
Карпенко, О. Економічна безпека країни та міжнародні рейтинги: аналіз та інструменти оцінювання. Науковий вісник Полтавського університету економіки і торгівлі. Серія : Економічні науки, 2023. № 3(109), С. 5–12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37734/2409-6873-2023-3-1
Hoque, M., Ahmed, M.U. Fragile States in Relation to SDG10: Concept, History, Causes and Measurement. In: Leal Filho, W., Azul, A.M., Brandli, L., Lange Salvia, A., Özuyar, P.G., Wall, T. (eds) Reduced Inequalities. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham. 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71060-0_69-1
Sanín, F. Evaluating State Performance: A Critical View of State Failure and Fragility Indexes. Eur J Dev Res. Vol. 23, 2011. Р. 20–42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2010.53
Nemanja Džuverović, Sandro Radovanović, Goran Tepšić, Đorđe Krivokapić. Balkan Peace Index decision EXpert model and data, Data in Brief, 2025. Volume 58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2024.111181
Semenenko, O., Abramova, M., Tarasov, O., Mytchenko, S., Dziubchuk, R., Fomkin, D. Resilience and Sustainability: Key Theoretical-Practical Narratives and War-Economic Lessons. Social Development and Security, 2025. No. 15(2), P. 314-326. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2025.15.2.24
Нанай, О. М., Сьомкін, О. В., Чікалкін, І. І., Кравченко, С. А., Швець, Ю. Ю., Лемішовський, В. І. Теоретичні основи стійкості національної економіки в умовах глобальних викликів. Наукові записки Львівського університету бізнесу та права. Серія економічна. Серія юридична. 2024. № (42). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15519064
Федірко Н. В., Куценко Т. Ф., Мальковська Ю. Б., Дзензелюк К. В., Сіренко Я. С. Оцінювання крихкості регіонів України в умовах збройного конфлікту. Ефективна економіка. 2018. № 12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105-2018.12.100
Вдовин М., Міщук Т. Рейтингування регіонів України за показниками добробуту населення. Вісник Сумського національного аграрного університету. 2022. Вип. (1 (91)). С. 3–9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/bsnau.2022.1.1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/bsnau.2022.1.1
Cooper K., Fabian M. & Krekel C. New approaches to measuring welfare. Fiscal Studies. 2023. No. 44(2). P. 123–135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12333
Зомчак Л., Коваль Л. Сталий розвиток регіонів України: просторово-панельний підхід. Інфраструктура ринку. 2022. Вип. 65. С. 211–215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32843/infrastruct65-35
Шіковець К.О., Квіта Г.М., Єрьоменко Я.М. Системно-ситуаційне моделювання цілей сталого розвитку. Інфраструктура ринку. 2021. Вип. 62. С. 102–107. DOI: 10.32843/infrastruct62-18
The Fund for Peace. Fragile States Index. URL: https://fragilestatesindex.org
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). States of Fragility. Official website. URL: https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htm
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Resilience Building in Ukraine: UNDP Response to the War. 2023: вебсайт. URL: https://www.undp.org/ukraine/publications/resilience-building-response-to-war
Вдовин, М., Сухович, Х. Прогнозування рівня добробуту населення України методом Хольта. Економіка та суспільство. 2024. No. (64). DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-64-6
Офіційний сайт Генеральної прокуратури України. URL: https://old.gp.gov.ua/ (дата звернення: 20 серпня 2025 р.)
Офіційний сайт Державної служби статистики України. URL: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua (дата звернення: 20 серпня 2025 р.)
Zomchak, L., Klochnyk, O. External sector of Ukraine: tendencies, determinants and interdependencies between indicators. Customs Scientific Journal, 2023. № 1, Р. 62-69.
Bahinskyi A. V. (2022). Krykhki derzhavy v umovakh kryzovykh sytuatsii [Fragile states in crisis situations]. Visnyk Visnyk NTUU «KPI». Politolohiia. Sotsiolohiia. Pravo. № 3(55) (2022). 29-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20535/2308-5053.2022.3(55).269534
Skyba O. (2024). Instytutsiina stiikist derzhavy yak faktor yii staloho rozvytku ta ekonomichnoi bezpeky [Institutional stability of the state as a factor of its sustainable development and economic security]. Stalyi rozvytok ekonomiky. No. 3(50), pp. 256-261. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2308-1988/2024-50-38 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2308-1988/2024-50-38
Karpenko, O. (2023). Ekonomichna bezpeka krainy ta mizhnarodni reitynhy: analiz ta instrumenty otsiniuvannia [Economic security of the country and international rankings: analysis and assessment tools.]. Naukovyi visnyk Poltavskoho universytetu ekonomiky i torhivli. Seriia : Ekonomichni nauky. No. 3(109), pp. 5–12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37734/2409-6873-2023-3-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.37734/2409-6873-2023-3-1
Hoque, M., Ahmed, M. U. (2022). Fragile States in Relation to SDG10: Concept, History, Causes and Measurement. In: Leal Filho, W., Azul, A.M., Brandli, L., Lange Salvia, A., Özuyar, P.G., Wall, T. (eds) Reduced Inequalities. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71060-0_69-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71060-0_69-1
Sanín, F. (2011). Evaluating State Performance: A Critical View of State Failure and Fragility Indexes. Eur J Dev Res, no. 23, pp. 20–42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2010.53 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2010.53
Nemanja Džuverović, Sandro Radovanović, Goran Tepšić, Đorđe Krivokapić (2025). Balkan Peace Index decision EXpert model and data, Data in Brief, Volume 58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2024.111181 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2024.111181
Semenenko, O., Abramova, M., Tarasov, O., Mytchenko, S., Dziubchuk, R., Fomkin, D. (2025). Resilience and Sustainability: Key Theoretical-Practical Narratives and War-Economic Lessons. Social Development and Security, no. 15(2), pp. 314-326. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2025.15.2.24 DOI: https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2025.15.2.24
Nanai, O. M., Somkin, O. V., Chikalkin, I. I., Kravchenko, S. A., Shvets, Yu. Yu., Lemishovskyi, V. I. (2024). Teoretychni osnovy stiikosti natsionalnoi ekonomiky v umovakh hlobalnykh vyklykiv [Theoretical basis of national economy sustainability in the context of global challenges]. Naukovi zapysky Lvivskoho universytetu biznesu ta prava. Seriia ekonomichna. Seriia yurydychna. No. 42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15519064
Fedirko N. V., Kutsenko T. F., Malkovska Yu. B., Dzenzeliuk K. V., Sirenko Ya. S. (2018) Otsiniuvannia krykhkosti rehioniv Ukrainy v umovakh zbroinoho konfliktu [Assessing fragility of Ukrainian regions under the armed conflict]. Efektyvna ekonomika. № 12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105-2018.12.100 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105-2018.12.100
Vdovyn, M., & Mishchuk, T. (2022). Reytynhuvannya rehioniv Ukrayiny za pokaznykamy dobrobutu naselennya [Rating of regions of Ukraine according to indicators of population well-being]. Visnyk Sumsʹkoho natsionalʹnoho ahrarnoho universytetu, vol. 1 (91), pp. 3–9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12333
Cooper K., Fabian M. & Krekel C. (2023) New approaches to measuring welfare. Fiscal Studies, no. 44(2), pp. 123–35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12333 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-5890.12333
Zomchak L., Koval L. (2022) Stalyi rozvytok rehioniv Ukrainy: prostorovo-panelnyi pidkhid [Sustainable development of Ukrainian regions: spatial panel method]. Infrastruktura rynku, no. 65, pp. 211–215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32843/infrastruct65-35 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32843/infrastruct65-35
Shikovets K.O., Kvita H.M., Yeromenko Ya.M. (2021) Systemno-sytuatsiine modeliuvannia tsilei staloho rozvytku [System-situational modeling objectives of sustainable development]. Infrastruktura rynku, no. 62, pp. 102–107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32843/infrastruct62-18 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32843/infrastruct62-18
The Fund for Peace. Fragile States Index. Available at: https://fragilestatesindex.org
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). States of Fragility. Official website. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htm
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Resilience Building in Ukraine: UNDP Response to the War. 2023. Available at: https://www.undp.org/ukraine/publications/resilience-building-response-to-war
Vdovyn M., & Sukhovych Kh. (2024) Prohnozuvannia rivnia dobrobutu naselennia ukrainy metodom Kholta [Population welfare level forecasting of ukraine: Holt method]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, no. (64). DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-64-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-64-6
Official website. Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine. Available at: https://old.gp.gov.ua/ (accessed August 20, 2025).
Official website. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Available at: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ (accessed August 20, 2025)
Zomchak, L., Klochnyk, O. (2023). External sector of Ukraine: tendencies, determinants and interdependencies between indicators. Customs Scientific Journal, no. 1, pp. 62-69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2308-6971/2023.1.7
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.


