A RISK- AND TIME-BASED MODEL FOR PROCESSING INFORMATION FLOWS IN THE PHYSICAL PROTECTION OF SPECIAL-PURPOSE AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FACILITIES

Elshan Hashimov; Ramil Akhundov; Aziz Talibov; Marko Radovanovic

doi:10.26906/SUNZ.2026.3.139

Автор(и)

Elshan Hashimov
Ramil Akhundov
Aziz Talibov
Marko Radovanovic

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26906/SUNZ.2026.3.139

Ключові слова:

physical protection system, information flow, information latency, data fusion, risk, time sufficiency, critical infrastructure, partially non-compensatory model

Анотація

The effectiveness of a physical protection system depends not only on sensor sensitivity, barrier delay, and response-force readiness, but also on the timely, complete, and undistorted delivery of heterogeneous security data to the decision-making level. This study proposes an integrated risk- and time-based model for processing information flows in the physical protection of special-purpose and critical infrastructure facilities. The information environment is represented as a directed graph. Transmission, processing, and queuing delays are combined with completeness, accuracy, consistency, reliability, and cyber-resilience indicators. A partially non-compensatory information-quality index is developed by combining a weighted geometric mean with the weakest component and a time-decay factor. Information latency is explicitly embedded in the detection, delay, and response time balance, and analytical expressions are formulated for the probability of timely intervention and residual risk. A 10,000-run Monte Carlo experiment is performed for a hypothetical three-zone facility. The distributed backup route achieved an integral information-quality score of 0.849, compared with 0.782 for the centralized primary route and 0.590 for the congested and partially compromised route. In the insider-bypass scenario, the distributed route increased the probability of satisfying the time condition from 0.442 to 0.562 and the mean integrated interruption probability from 0.246 to 0.326. The proposed approach enables weaknesses in information channels to be evaluated jointly with physical barriers and allows information routes to be selected dynamically according to event risk and the time available.

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