Mathematical forecasting models in the financial institutions’ economic security system
Abstract
The system of economic security is considered a complex combination of short-term and long-term control systems. The necessity of interaction and simultaneous functioning of these two systems for ensuring adequate and operative assessment of the institution `s activity is characterized. The paper examines the need of using forecasting methods to ensure control and monitoring of financial institutions` economic security. The role of forecasting in the system of ensuring stable activity of the institution is determined. The advantages of introducing forecasting into the stability control system are presented. The main functions of forecasting and features of their realization in the conditions of uncertainty are allocated. The need for constant control and analysis of the main current indicators of the financial institution and forecasting their changes in the future. The forecast should be revised according to the new information at all analysis stages. The need for rapid adaptation of long-term plans and projects for the institution development in accordance with the results of forecasting. Forecasting is defined as an effective tool for ensuring the institution's economic security.
References
2. Biloshkurskaya N.V. , Biloshkursky M.V. (2013). Theoretical aspects of economic security of enterprises. Sustainable economic development. № 2. P. 85-89. Retrieved from: http://dspace.udpu.org.ua:8080/jspui/bitstream/6789/103/1/Teoretychni_aspekty_ekonomichnoi_bezpeky_pidpryiemstv.pdf
3. Novikova O.F., Pokotylenko R.V. (2006). Economic security: conceptual definitions and mechanisms of provision: [monograph]. Donetsk: NAS of Ukraine, Institute of Industrial Economics. P. 408.
4. Zachosova N.V. (2011). Personnel management in the system of economic and financial security of a commercial bank. Modern Economy: Issue 5. Kyiv: DIPK. P. 72.
5. Migus I.P., Laptev S.M. (2011). The need to distinguish between the concepts of "threat" and "risk" in the diagnosis of economic security of economic entities. Effective economy. № 12. Retrieved from: www.economy.nayka.com.ua/.
6. Sorokivska Z. (2011). On the issue of financial security of the bank in the global economic crisis. Economic analysis. Issue 8. Part 1. P. 404–408.
7. Melnik S.I. (2010). Formation of the system of economic security of the bank. Bulletin of Transport Economics and Industry. № 29. P.149-152.
8. National Bank of Ukraine. Retrieved from: https://bank.gov.ua.
9. Onyshchenko, V. O., Khudolii, Y. S., & Chervjak, A. V. (2016). Peculiarities of ensuring economic bank security in terms of financial instability. Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice, 1 (20), 4–12.
10. Melnik S.I. (2010). Formation of the system of economic security of the bank. Bulletin of Transport Economics and Industry. № 29. P.149-152.
11. Zvarych O.V. (2011). Medium-term forecasting of budget revenues and their relationship with macroeconomic indicators. Finance of Ukraine. № 8. P. 59-75.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
