Paradigm of financial risk in Ukraine: transformation under martial law
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26906/EiR.2026.3(102).4715Keywords:
uncertainty, transformation, financial risk, financial risk paradigm, financial system, financial market, financial stabilityAbstract
The article investigates the transformation of the financial risk paradigm in Ukraine under martial law. It is established that the full-scale war has significantly altered the conditions of functioning of the national financial system, generating new sources of uncertainty and expanding the traditional understanding of financial risk. The study proves that contemporary financial risk is shaped not only by economic and market factors but also by military, social, logistical, technological, institutional, and regulatory determinants that directly affect the financial stability of economic systems and individual economic entities. The transformational determinants of financial risk under martial law are systematized and their role in generating new sources of financial losses is substantiated. It is demonstrated that risks of non-financial origin, including military risk, cyber risk, demographic risk, business relocation risk, asset loss risk, logistics risk, and labor shortage risk, are transformed into financial risks through their impact on revenues, expenditures, liquidity, solvency, and asset value. Consequently, financial risk should be interpreted as a multidimensional phenomenon that reflects the interaction between financial and non-financial threats. Based on the analysis of the evolution of theoretical and methodological approaches, the features of the military-geopolitical paradigm of financial risk are identified. Unlike previous approaches, this paradigm is characterized by the integration of traditional financial risks with security, technological, social, and institutional factors. The study confirms that the modern paradigm does not replace traditional forms of financial risk but supplements them with new determinants arising from military and geopolitical challenges. The paper also highlights the absence of a unified definition of financial risk in Ukrainian legislation and emphasizes the need for further harmonization with European approaches. As a result, an updated definition of financial risk is proposed and interpreted as a complex economic category reflecting the probability of direct or indirect financial losses, deterioration of financial stability, and disruption of business continuity under the influence of interconnected financial and non-financial determinants.
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